Futures market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,434.5/mt, fluctuating downward at the beginning, with the lowest point reaching $9,368.0/mt. It then rose steadily, nearing the end of the session to a high of $9,459.5/mt, and finally closed at $9,455.0/mt, with an increase of 0.92%. The trading volume was 10,021, and the open interest was 284,031. Overnight, the SHFE copper 2506 contract opened at 77,500 yuan/mt, with prices fluctuating at the beginning and then gradually rising. The lowest point reached 77,460 yuan/mt, and the highest point reached 77,800 yuan/mt, finally closing at 77,770 yuan/mt, with an increase of 0.14%. The trading volume was 39,934, and the open interest was 162,792, with a daily increase of -3,344, a change of -2.01%.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News: (1) Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, attended the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting. Pan emphasized that the People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to promote high-quality development of the Chinese economy.
(2) Global miner Anglo American reported a 15% YoY decline in copper production in Q1 but maintained its full-year production guidance. The London-listed miner stated that Q1 copper production was 168,900 mt, reflecting increased production in Peru due to higher grades, offset by planned production declines in Chile.
Spot: (1) Shanghai: On April 24, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2505 contract were at a premium of 150-200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 175 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Looking ahead, downstream buying sentiment is expected to improve on Friday, and with the upcoming Labour Day holiday, downstream stocking demand is anticipated. Suppliers are expected to maintain firm premiums, but attention should be paid to arbitrageurs potentially offloading goods at lower prices first.
(2) Guangdong: On April 24, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a premium of 200-250 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 225 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Overall, high copper prices and premiums have suppressed spot trades, with a generally subdued trading atmosphere yesterday.
(3) Imported copper: On April 24, warrant prices were at $84-92/mt, QP May, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day; B/L prices were at $98-108/mt, QP May, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was at $57-67/mt, QP May, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day, referencing arrivals in late April and early May. Yesterday, the SHFE/LME price ratio rose, and on the last day of the SMM copper meeting, spot market trading was light, with few offers in the morning market. The pace of long-term contract declarations for May remained slow. It was heard that pyrometallurgy B/L for late April was quoted at $100-110, and CCC-P, ENM, and ILO for early May were traded at $110-115 QP May. Domestic warrant offers were traded at around $85-90/5QP. Offers for EQ warrants in mid to late May at $60-70/5QP found no takers. Overall, market logic has not significantly changed, and the arrival of some domestic B/Ls is expected to put some pressure on premiums.
(4) Inventory: On April 24, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 1,825 mt to 203,425 mt; on April 24, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 2,001 mt to 42,964 mt.
Prices: Macro-wise, Fed's Harker stated that if economic data becomes clear, the Fed may cut interest rates in June, while Waller indicated that a clearer understanding of how tariffs affect the economy may not be available until July. If tariffs lead to rising unemployment, interest rate cuts may begin. Fed officials' comments have fueled expectations of rate cuts, leading to a pullback in the US dollar index and boosting copper prices, but tariff uncertainties have limited gains. On the fundamental side, high copper prices and premiums have constrained market activity, but with the weekend and Labour Day holiday approaching, downstream stocking demand is expected. Today's purchasing sentiment may improve. Overall, with the US dollar index rebounding, copper prices are expected to face upward pressure today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
